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Prediction for CME (2026-05-16T16:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-05-16T16:36Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46214/-1
CME Note: CME observed to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1, and NE in STEREO A COR2. The source is observed as significant dimming and an EUV wave centered around N30W13, and field line movement, in SDO AIA 171/193 starting around 2026-05-16T15:18Z, associated with an M1.9 flare peaking at 2026-05-16T16:12Z from AR 14436 (N22W17). Arrival may be seen near 2026-05-19T06:10Z as a relatively minor arrival signature characterized by rapid magnetic field increase from 3.5 to 7.5 nT seen at ACE/DSCOVR/IMAP with decrease in density and relatively stable temperature profiles with velocity increase from 500 km/s to 650 km/s.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-05-19T06:31Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-05-18T14:30Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 7.5 - 7.5
Prediction Method: SWA WLS
Prediction Method Note:

Submitted by Leila on behalf of Alec Engell.

Prediction submission received via email for first forecast submission from Space Weather Analyst - Weighted Least Squares model (manuscript submitted).

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Here is our Weighted least squares prediction:

 

44 hours after peak of flare

5/18/2026 14:30

 

Kp is surprisingly high but our dataset is very heavily weighted toward bigger geomag storms. 

 

7.5

Lead Time: 37.12 hour(s)
Difference: 16.02 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2026-05-17T17:24Z

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